PAPER IN AFRICA
Discussing the past, present, and future of the region’s paper industry, METissue displayed an in-depth industry presentation discussing the future opportunities within the hygiene and nonwoven paper products across the African continent.
It is widely speculated now that global key developed markets such as the US and UK have begun facing growing political uncertainty and a plateauing in their commodity markets and profitability, possibly prompting investors with a risk appetite to pursue venture opportunities throughout global emerging markets, not the least interesting of which is Africa.
The second largest continent – which comprises of 54 diverse countries and a total population of more than 1.2 billion - boasted an economic forecast of 5% growth per year in recent years, a number which only seems to be climbing upwards, despite the associated risks for tighter global financial conditions and the geopolitical circumstances of some of the more fragile African states.
The African Scene
Nigeria – who is by far Africa’s biggest producers of oil with over 2.5 million barrels produced every day – has the largest population in the continent, with more than 190 million people living in it.
Of all the African countries, Algeria has the biggest surface area, covering 2,382 Km2 and occupies around 7% of Africa, and boasts a steadily growing population of 39 million.
The growth rate of the African population as a whole is so rapid, that studies indicate Africa is poised to become the most densely populated continent in the next two decades, surpassing the population of China and India.
A McKinsey report on the continent, titled the African Consumer, estimates that the African Consumer-facing industries are expected to grow by more than $400 billion by 2020. Due to a lack of proper market research, foreign investors are currently hesitant about investing in Africa, although there is serious profitability to be made by being the first to enter the virgin markets scattered across the continent, especially in the tissue paper industry.
It should be noted that Africa’s population is not only the fastest growing; it is also the youngest in the world. The complex and diverse continent’s population is tech-savvy, brand aware, and quality conscious.
As it stands, the consumer-facing market mentioned above is heavily concentrated in 10 out of the 54 African countries – Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, and Tunisia – which account for around 81% of Africa’s private consumption in 2011, according to the McKinsey research.
Taking the above in mind, a perceptive entrepreneur would be aware that mid-tier, less urban cities would pose less competition, better profit margins, and a more-accessible virgin territory for starting up a tissue paper business, while the effectiveness of investing in rural areas is yet to be established, given how 40% percent of the African population lives in cities, where urban spending is increasing at double the rate of rural spending.
Paper Production in Africa
The type of paper being produced by the African mills spans from tissue, wrapping paper, board, fluting and liner, to writing and printing and news print.
As it stands, the following countries hold Africa’s major tissue production: Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Tunisia, Tanzania, and South Africa.
On a smaller scale, we see that Ghana, Madagascar, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe are beginning to pick up the pace in their own local tissue production mills, a challenging endeavor to wean off importing paper-based products, with hopes to have a larger role in their own domestic markets.
Strictly from a quantitative stand-point, South Africa currently dominates the tissue machine distribution market from a machinery stand point. The country boasts 18 different mills containing 22 machines, and currently exports its products to neighboring countries like Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Mozambique, Zambia and Swaziland.
In North Africa, Egypt holds the highest number of tissue mills and machines, and is currently operating at 8 mills and 14 machines.
But are tissues the answer?
The opportunities present in domesticating tissue paper production in Africa are clear, especially given the above mentioned surge in Africa’s population and private consumption. Certain countries across the Northern and Western side of Africa may have a head start, as energy, water, and manpower is more readily-available, allowing them to expand their tissue mill installation/operation plans with lower risk.
It should be kept in mind, however, that the tissue paper sector was known to be one of the least affected markets by the 2008 crisis. The resilient, low-risk market means that the smaller, more urban countries in Africa still stand a chance to compete in the local and domestic tissue mill installations, as many major investments are piloting small tissue machine projects, which are low cost investments compared to other types of paper machines.
Various types of opportunities are available for the tissue industry in the nascent parts of Africa. Smaller or poorer countries may choose to invest in other tissue paper grades, or seek partnerships with international investors to develop and change the type of paper grades used within their factories.
Others may pick investing in second hand tissue mills, or modifying existing Fourdrinier machines into tissue paper production.
Given how diverse Africa is, it is important to note that the above measures may not apply to a country like South Africa or Nigeria.
In South Africa, we are witnessing extremely competitive large players in the tissue production and distribution market. Existing mills are in a constant cut throat battle to improve their quality and increase their machines’ efficiency over their competition.
In Nigeria, the country’s consumer spend is also constrained due to currency depreciation and interest rate hikes, meaning that tissue producers have to seriously consider aggressive promotions throughout the year to drive market performance.
Let’s start with the basics: when it comes to electricity, Africa has a huge discrepancy in the rates across the continent. For example, tariffs in South Africa and Zambia are among the lowest in the world, while prices in Djibouti and Gabon are among the highest globally.
Water, on the other hand, is available in the Western Africa but not in the rest of the continent.
It is not as readily available in other parts, but can possibly be sourced with the association of the governments in Sub-Saharan and Northern Africa.
Manpower is available locally at very cheap prices, due to the young median age and growing unemployment rates in some of the emerging markets within Africa.
Moving on to the machinery, the latest technology in tissue paper production is not available in the majority of the African market. Except from the North part of Africa, most of the continent is a virgin territory in this aspect, meaning that international financers with a risk appetite to invest in the latest technology can have a head start against local competitions relying on machinery that is decades old.
Raw material such as virgin pulp and de-inked pulp are predominantly imported, while OCC, office waste and mixed waste are often recycled locally.
The future of African Tissue paper mills
Currently, 850,000 tons of tissue paper is produced annually in Africa. With new tissue mills opening up, and a better awareness on production technology, this number is expected to rise by 220,000 tons in 2017 alone, meaning that by early 2018, Africa stands to produce more than 1 million tons of tissue paper per year.
The past decade has shown a considerable growth in consumption of tissue paper, which was predominantly lead by end-user consumption in North Africa, followed by South Africa. East and West Africa are picking up the pace as well, with smaller to mid-tier mills controlling the domestic markets and exporting to nearby, smaller countries.
Governments such as Kenya’s have banned the importation of finished toilet rolls, serviettes and facial tissues since 2004, opening up a lucrative market for domestic competition, where it is estimated that 800 million units of the above mentioned products are required on an annual basis.
As of this writing, three new tissue machines have been installed and commissioned in South Africa, along with two second hand machines to follow through by mid-2017.
Algeria and Egypt are also in the works to expand their presence in the North African tissue export market. Both countries planning to install new tissue machine each by the end of 2017, with an intention of exporting to nearby Mediterranean countries.
While mass production of standard tissue paper is a profitable venture, mainly due to its consumer demand and low initial investment possibility, it is not the only viable option to make a profitable tissue paper mill. In fact, with a few modifications, existing African paper mills can easily shift their current production into the field of manufacturing Crepe paper, MG paper, or specialty tissue paper with variable grades.
Investors who wish to play it safe need to keep in mind that low production capacity tissue machines are widely available, and even these are capable of producing tissues with a higher profit margin than most other paper grades. Once a deeper understanding of the local and regional market is made, existing producers may pursue multiple special tissue grades, such as high quality printed napkins, the use of detergents inside towels, or even napkins with lotion applied on the tissue paper’s surface.
A glimpse at the challenges
While investors expect to make good profits in the paper manufacturing industry in Africa, picking the right paper grade and the exact right time and location is imperative to avoid the associated regulatory and strategic risks.
A case study worth noting is the Kenyan-based Pan Paper, now known as Rai Paper, which was one of the largest paper makers in East Africa. Poor cultural understanding, lack of professional management, and raw material procurement caused the scope of the paper mill’s output to drastically drop throughout the 2000s, leaving behind thousands of locals who depended on the paper mill. This was followed by a 2 billion Kenyan Shilling (around USD $19.5 million) investment by the government through the ministry of industrialization, in a failed effort to revive the plant, which unfortunately resulted in it shutting down completely in 2009.
But it’s not all doom and gloom for Pan Paper, as the company has since then recovered after an 11 year hiatus. The company has recently been injected with a large investment from the Rai investments group, and the paper mill is operational as of 17th February 2017 under the name Rai Paper.
The Bottom Line
With globalization and internet access on the rise in Africa, The African consumer is now more than ever brand conscious, and personal hygiene could become a priority to almost every house hold.
Because it is difficult to lump such a diverse continent into one generalization, business ventures must understand the local culture inside-out. Choices made to invest in African paper mills must offer true value proposition in order to stand out in most of the continent’s nascent markets.
It is also important to conduct a thorough risk assessment of all the interconnected aspects of this industry, from shipping and logistics constraints to possible political instabilities and the willingness of local authorities to cooperate. Overall, our research indicates that the African market is open to tissue paper importation and exportation, and the possibility for growth far outweighs the risks involved.